CMC Markets专栏: 松紧之反差,观欧美经济

Author
CMC Markets, Tina Teng

Article

似乎局势逐渐明朗，欧洲预期年底进一步宽松，负利率在望；美国预期年底加息，有强劲就业数据支持。非农时刻，一夜之间已见分晓，欧元对美元终跌破重要支持位置1.08，而局势看来有可能这只是欧元新一轮下跌的开始。但是否像业界所说欧元与美元有望平价，这还需要对两国的现状分别来看。

欧洲概况

欧洲央行行长德拉吉在10月22日的会议上表示欧洲有可能在12月份再次对其QE进行重新评估，再次扩大资产购买与下调存款利率至0以下更大程度，欧洲现行的存款利率为-0.2%。欧洲央行的QE水平现为600亿欧元的资产购买量，此计划将至少持续到2016年9月份，对于QE的宽松将进一步扩大，欧洲央行将寻求更多的资产购买项目。欧元对美元当日大跌250点至整数位置1.11。而后，似乎再没有什么原因能够助力欧元，随后美联储耶伦表示年底美国加息有望, 欧元再次跳水, 而上周五的绝对强筋的美国就业数据使得欧元再无生还之力，再次破位下跌，跌破1.08支持，地位调整于1.0750附近。

另外，欧盟国家会议昨日开幕，希腊再次问题成为焦点，对于20亿欧元的援助资金的释放，希腊与其欧盟债权国仍需要时间才会达成协议。但局势并不是十分消极，希腊财政部长Euclid Tsakalotos表示希腊在银行再融资改革上超过预期的速度，比预想中要更有效率。再之，欧洲各主要国家9月份与10月份个方面数据表现良佳，这些都是欧洲经济正在复苏的苗头，12月份QE是否扩大还需要根据具体经济形势而定。

美国概况

看来我们对于美国10月份非农数据做了低估，本次非农出奇的好,使得市场对于美联储年底加息的预期大大增强绝对好于预期并远超数次前值的数据使得美元的强势毫无质疑的表现出来；美国国债收益率也因此大增，2年期国债收益率升至0.96%，达5年最高，10年期国债收益率涨至2.33%；由于美国加息预期使得投资者对于风险的警惕提高，美股均有下行。事情总是这样巧合，当美联储耶伦更加明确表态12月份加息在望之时，非农数据果真好的不同寻常。本次非农就业人数增长27.1万人，比预期多增8.9万人，并创自6月份以来增长人数的新高，加之美国就业率降至自2008年以来最低的5%，使得投资者对于美国经济强筋的现状更加有信心。

在2008年金融危机以来，美国便开始了大力刺激经济发展的QE项目，截至2014年12月份，美国释放出4.48万亿美元的资金。自2015年开始，美联储开始逐步退出其资产购买的项目，而终于在4月份表示将有望在本年度实现自2009年以来的第一次加息。美国现行的联邦基准利率在0.25%以下接近于0。而本次非农的绝对强劲，基本给出明确的信号美国将非常有可能在12月份加息。

分析两国经济现状，也许不难看出在目前的阶段上，欧元对美元毫无还击之力。而唯一能够使其有生还之机也许是美联储不予在12月份加息。这需要对与本月与12月份的欧洲与美国的各项经济数据热切关注以作预期的判断。

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。